Buckeyes, Terps, Mountaineers Are Legit Final Four Candidates
By: J.T. Pinch
The final arguments are being made this week by those desperate for a place at the party or by invited guests hoping to improve their table location. It's an annual rite of preparation for the NCAA tournament, and it provides much-needed gravitas to a season that spends two-plus months gathering momentum for its thrilling conclusion. Consider it the opposite of the college football world, which brings drama and excitement to fans each week during the regular season before wheezing home with a parade of largely meaningless bowl games in advance of a contrived "national championship" contest.
We won't know the identities of all the participants and their status within the draw until Sunday, but there are some trends and storylines that have emerged already and demand our attention. So, our attention we give.
The Top Dogs: A couple of weeks ago, we dealt with the question of which teams deserved No. 1 seeds in the tourney, and little has changed since then. Kentucky, Kansas and Syracuse are locks, even if all stumble horribly in their conference tournaments. Right now, it appears as if Duke is the fourth candidate, primarily by default. Perhaps Ohio State could grab a spot on the top line, provided the Buckeyes win the Big Ten tourney, and the Blue Devils make a speedy exit from the ACC competition. West Virginia has a similar puncher's chance, but it must emerge on top of the Big East and hope for a Duke collapse.
Bubble Ugliness: Around this time each year, we hear about the teams struggling to grab the last few at-large berths. This year is no different, although the quality of schools vying for the final invitations is much lower and provides a strong argument against expanding the tourney. Go ahead and try to differentiate between Illinois, Washington and San Diego State. Try to discern a gap between Arizona State, Rhode Island and UAB. Those schools have only one thing in common, and it isn't that they are all too good to be left out of the round of 65. Last year's crop of at-large candidates was one of the worst ever, but it was better than this year's group. Get ready for a bunch of arguments, because the last few teams admitted to the party won't have much of a case against those who were left waiting outside.
Sleeper Cells: When tourney "sleepers" are usually mentioned, they are of the mid-major variety. Which teams can win a game or two and provide the requisite first-weekend drama that makes the tournament so popular? We'll get to those. This section looks at teams with a chance to win it - or at least reach the Final Four - who aren't among the chosen few. Since just about everybody is predicting a finale that includes some combination of Kentucky, Kansas and the 'Cuse, it's instructive to consider a few other candidates. Although OSU will likely be a No. 2 or No. 3 seed, if it doesn't ascend to a top position, the Buckeyes aren't too well known around the country. Too bad. Ohio State has a great starting lineup and the nation's best player, Evan Turner. Maryland is dangerous, too, and not just because of senior scorer Greivis Vasquez. The Terps play lock-down defense and can hit the three-pointer. West Virginia has two front-line players in Da'Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks and a nasty attitude that will work well against tough rivals. Three others with outside shots of reaching Indianapolis are versatile, defensive-minded Temple, raw-boned Wisconsin and Baylor, which has been largely anonymous all year.
Surprise, Surprise! Now for the fun part, the teams that can destroy brackets and turn an otherwise conventional tournament into a big mess. You know there are going to be upsets, and picking them can be a dicey proposition. But here are some double-digit seeds that can get it done. Look out for Murray State. The Racers have five starters who average double figures, shoot 50.3% from the field as a team and force a load of turnovers. Utah State enters the tourney on a big run and boasts one of the nation's most versatile players in Tai Wesley. Siena upset Ohio State last year and has a bunch of experience and firepower, while Northern Iowa plays outstanding defense, doesn't turn the ball over, can hit the three-pointer well and has plenty of ballhandlers. Finally, this could be the year Cornell wins one. The Big Red has experience, a proven scorer in Ryan Wittman and gets production inside from senior Jeff Foote. If you don't think Cornell is worthy, ask anybody from Kansas how it felt to be down to the Big Red late in their January game.
